Wednesday, February 13, 2008

More Obama math

Let's start with current pledged delegates (let's use CNN's numbers):

Obama: 1082
Clinton: 973

Now, put in the Florida numbers:

Clinton: 50% ~ 93 delegates
Obama: 33% ~ 61 delegates

Let's even throw out the delegates that Edwards won.

Now, Michigan:

Clinton: 55% ~ 70 delegates

We won't even give Obama 1 delegate from Michigan, just for grins, though I think we can both agree that wouldn't happen.

So, we get this:

Obama: 1082 + 61 = 1143
Clinton: 973 + 93 + 70 = 1136

Look at that - even by given Ms. Clinton every benefit of the doubt, not giving Obama a *single* delegate from MI, and - she's still behind on pledged delegates.

And these numbers, I believe, don't have all of the updates from VA, MD, and DC, either. Then there's WI and Hawaii.

So even with the FL and MI delegates, under the best circumstances possible, Ms. Clinton is still behind in pledged delegates. Still behind in states.

And, at this rate, will still be behind by the convention.  As long as we keep working hard, I think we're going to make it.

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