Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Doing some math on Hilary versus Barack

Obama has won more states.  He's won more pledged delegates.  The only advantages someone may be able to claim for Senator Clinton is popular vote - but since some states are caucus (meaning that only active people show up) opposed to primaries (just voting booth), you can't claim apples to oranges - caucus members represent more than their individual vote.

The only advantage she has left is in Super Delegates (giving her 1148 over Obama's 1121 according to CNN), and as of today even factoring in those numbers Obama will likely be ahead in total delegates.  Remove the Super Delegates from the equation (especially since there's about 450 unpledged super delegates who would go with the winner of the pledged delegates), and Obama is ahead 986 to Clinton's 924.  After today and next week, she will have to win Texas and Ohio with 70% of the vote - something that will be difficult as both states are open (allowing independents to vote in the primary).

So while I don't think she should pull out just yet (she still has a chance), I think the writing is on the wall.  As long as we keep pressing forward, calling every person, fighting for every vote, Obama will win.  We just have to do our part, not get lazy, and we can gear up for the next fight:

The general election.

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